Forecasting Candidate States’ Compliance with EU Accession Rules, 2017–2050

Item Type Journal paper
Abstract The European Union (EU) is said to be tired of enlargement – but how likely is it that a candidate would be ready to join within 10, 15 or more years? This research forecasts how prospective members are likely able to perform in implementing EU law until 2050. Using compliance data of all states from the 2004, 2007 and 2013 accession rounds, as well as of five current/potential candidates, we construct an empirical model on candidates’ ability to comply with the acquis communautaire. We employ in-sample and out-of-sample techniques to ensure high model prediction accuracy and, ultimately, forecast the five candidates’ potential compliance levels in 2017–2050. Our research shows that only one candidate might sufficiently be able to comply with the accession criteria until 2023, while many are unlikely to be ready before the mid-2030s. Focusing on prediction and forecasting, our contribution is given by the research’s policy relevance and its methodological innovation.
Authors Böhmelt, Tobias & Freyburg, Tina
Journal or Publication Title Journal of European Public Policy
Language English
Subjects economics
social sciences
political science
HSG Classification contribution to scientific community
HSG Profile Area SEPS - Global Democratic Governance
Refereed Yes
Date 17 September 2018
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Place of Publication London
Volume 25
Number 11
Page Range 1667-1685
ISSN 1350-1763
ISSN-Digital 1466-4429
Publisher DOI
Official URL
Depositing User Prof. Ph.D Tina Margarete Freyburg
Date Deposited 17 Apr 2018 14:35
Last Modified 20 Jul 2022 17:34


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Böhmelt, Tobias & Freyburg, Tina (2018) Forecasting Candidate States’ Compliance with EU Accession Rules, 2017–2050. Journal of European Public Policy, 25 (11). 1667-1685. ISSN 1350-1763

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