From Data to Dollar – Using the Wisdom of an Online Tipster Community to Improve Sports Betting Returns

Item Type Forthcoming
Abstract

With thousands of (online) bookmakers accepting wagers on sporting events, sports betting has become a billion-dollar business worldwide. Therefore, researchers and practitioners have gathered interest in investigating the “wisdom-of-crowds” effect in online tipster communities to predict the outcomes of sports events. We extracted 1,534,041 tips of 3,484 tipsters from Blogabet.com and used this user-generated content to investigate whether there is wisdom in online tipster communities that can be used to improve betting returns. We applied state-of-the-art data mining and natural language processing techniques and tested our hypotheses using quantitative research methods. Our results demonstrate that there is indeed wisdom in such online tipster communities that can improve sports betting returns. Tipsters won 3.29% more tips than the implied win probability set by bookmakers and produced averaged yields of 3.97%. We further identified four characteristics that are significant indicators for smarter sub-crowds within the overall crowd of an online tipster community.

Authors Grüttner, Arne; Wambsganss, Thiemo & Back, Andrea
Language English
Subjects business studies
economics
computer science
information management
social sciences
finance
HSG Classification contribution to scientific community
HSG Profile Area SoM - Business Innovation
Refereed Yes
Date 2020
Volume European Journal of International Management (EJIM) - Special Issue on: "International Sports Management"
Depositing User Arne Grüttner
Date Deposited 29 May 2020 12:51
Last Modified 29 May 2020 12:54
URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/260293

Download

[img] Text
accepted_manuscript.pdf

Download (93kB)

Citation

Grüttner, Arne; Wambsganss, Thiemo & Back, Andrea (2020) From Data to Dollar – Using the Wisdom of an Online Tipster Community to Improve Sports Betting Returns. European Journal of International Management (EJIM) - Special Issue on: "International Sports Management"

Statistics

https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/id/eprint/260293
Edit item Edit item
Feedback?