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A Regime-Switching Approach to Modeling Rental Prices of U.K. Real Estate Sectors

Roland Füss, Michael Stein & Joachim Zietz

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abstract This article uses regime-switching models of the threshold type to analyze the adjustment process of rental prices for three U.K. commercial real estate sectors over the period 1974–2008. The nonlinear models outperform their linear counterparts in in-sample fit. Their out-of-sample forecasting ability is better whenever the corresponding linear models contain a significant amount of neglected nonlinearity. Regime switches are triggered when the growth rates of rental price exceed certain threshold levels. For the industrial and retail sectors such regime switches occur in situations of strong excess demand, for the office sector they occur when there is strong excess supply.
   
type journal paper
   
keywords
   
language English
kind of paper journal article
date of appearance 1-3-2012
journal Real Estate Economics
publisher Wiley-Blackwell (Dallas/USA)
ISSN 1080-8620
ISSN (online) 1540-6229
volume of journal 40
number of issue 02/2012
page(s) 317-350
review double-blind review
   
citation Füss, R., Stein, M., & Zietz, J. (2012). A Regime-Switching Approach to Modeling Rental Prices of U.K. Real Estate Sectors. Real Estate Economics, 40(02/2012), 317-350.