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East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?

Christoph Conrad, Michael Lechner & Welf Werner

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abstract Not available in German. Since the fall of the wall, East Germans have drastically changed their demographic behaviour. Marriages and births have dropped to an unprecedented low level. Our paper tracks birth rates of the East German population, past, present, and future. We propose a imulation model of future cohort fertility. The hyptheses we develop build on the historical record of reproductive behaviour in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) since 1960 and on an analysis of the pattern of change between 1990 and 1994. The particular emphasis lies on the assumption that East German couples will rapidly westernize their family size by trying to reach completed fertility levels of the corresponding West German cohort. This implies that the resulting adaptation process includes the post-unification crisis as a logical first step.
   
type journal paper
   
keywords
   
language English
kind of paper journal article
date of appearance 1-6-1996
journal Population and Development Review
publisher Blackwell Publishing (Malden, Mass.)
ISSN 0098-7921
volume of journal 22
number of issue 2
page(s) 331-358
review not reviewed
   
citation Conrad, C., Lechner, M., & Werner, W. (1996). East German Fertility After Unification: Crisis or Adaptation?. Population and Development Review, 22(2), 331-358.