IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1943.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Home Bias in Sovereign Exposure and the Probability of Bank Default - Evidence from EU Stress Test Data

Author

Listed:
  • Dominik Meyland
  • Dorothea Schäfer

Abstract

Since the European debt crisis economists and politicians discuss intensively the sovereign-bank nexus. The high activity in sovereign bond issuance required to mitigate the burden of the Covid19 crisis will rather intensify this debate than calm it down. Surprisingly, however, we still have only limited knowledge about the impact of a home bias in sovereign exposure on bank stability. This paper provides a new way to use European stress test data to study this relationship. In addition, we explore the effect on a bank’s probability of default if the existing capital requirement privilege for EU sovereign exposures were abolished. Our results support the conceptual idea behind the nexus theory. Interestingly, the effect of a home bias on bank stability is contingent on the home country’s solvency. If the home country is sufficiently solvent, investments in home sovereign bonds may improve bank stability. The findings clearly support the benefits of additional CET1 capital buffers. Regulation focusing on the home bias should account for heterogeneous effects depending on the home country’s solvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominik Meyland & Dorothea Schäfer, 2021. "Home Bias in Sovereign Exposure and the Probability of Bank Default - Evidence from EU Stress Test Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.816299.de/dp1943.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Uhlig, 2014. "Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 15(1), pages 23-41, February.
    2. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2017. "Bank Exposures and Sovereign Stress Transmission," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2103-2139.
    3. Yawitz, Jess B., 1977. "An Analytical Model of Interest Rate Differentials and Different Default Recoveries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 481-490, September.
    4. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Horváth, Bálint & Huizinga, Harry & Ioannidou, Vasso, 2015. "Determinants and Valuation Effects of the Home Bias in European Banks' Sovereign Debt Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 10661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    7. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    9. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2018. "How Much of Bank Credit Risk Is Sovereign Risk? Evidence from Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1225-1269, September.
    10. Szmaragd, Camille & Clarke, Paul & Steele, Fiona, 2013. "Subject specific and population average models for binary longitudinal data: a tutorial," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 52199, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    12. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
    13. James Crotty, 2009. "Structural causes of the global financial crisis: a critical assessment of the 'new financial architecture'," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 563-580, July.
    14. Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. "Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-1244, December.
    15. Xavier Freixas & Curzio Giannini & Glenn Hoggarth & Farouk Soussa, 2000. "Lender of Last Resort: What Have We Learned Since Bagehot?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 63-84, October.
    16. Desislava C. Andreeva & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2019. "Home Bias in Bank Sovereign Bond Purchases and the Bank-Sovereign Nexus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 157-197, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2017. "Bank Exposures and Sovereign Stress Transmission," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2103-2139.
    2. Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Domestic banks as lightning rods? Home bias and information during Eurozone crisis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2019, Bank of Finland.
    3. Orkun Saka, 2019. "Domestic Banks as Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7939, CESifo.
    4. Crosignani, Matteo & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Fonseca, Luís, 2020. "The (Unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 97-112.
    5. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 8178, CESifo.
    6. Mäkinen, Taneli & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2020. "Risky bank guarantees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 490-522.
    7. Peydró, José Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2020. "Risk Mitigating versus Risk Shifting: Evidence from Banks Security Trading in Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 15473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Neeltje Van Horen, 2019. "The Invisible Hand of the Government: Moral Suasion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 346-379, October.
    9. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    10. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.
    11. Koetter, Michael & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Politics, banks, and sub-sovereign debt: Unholy trinity or divine coincidence?," Discussion Papers 53/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Filippo De Marco & Marco Macchiavelli, 2016. "The Political Origin of Home Bias: The Case of Europe," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-060, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Mark Mink & Rodney Ramcharan & Iman van Lelyveld, 2020. "How Banks Respond to Distress: Shifting Risks in Europe’s Banking Union," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-006/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Mark Mink & Rodney Ramcharan & Iman van Lelyveld, 2020. "How banks respond to distress: Shifting risks in Europe's banking union," DNB Working Papers 669, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Schwaab, Bernd, 2018. "Bank to sovereign risk spillovers across borders: Evidence from the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-262.
    16. Russell Cooper & Kalin Nikolov, 2018. "Government Debt And Banking Fragility: The Spreading Of Strategic Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1905-1925, November.
    17. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    18. Spyros Alogoskoufis & Sam Langfield, 2020. "Regulating the Doom Loop," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 251-292, September.
    19. Vlassopoulos, Thomas & C. Andreeva, Desislava, 2016. "Home bias in bank sovereign bond purchases and the bank-sovereign nexus," Working Paper Series 1977, European Central Bank.
    20. Neyer, Ulrike & Sterzel, André, 2017. "Capital requirements for government bonds: Implications for bank behaviour and financial stability," DICE Discussion Papers 275, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Home bias; sovereign bonds; bank stability; equity requirements; financial regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • K15 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Civil Law; Common Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1943. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.