Manfred Gärtner
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Standards are Poor: On competence and professional integrity at the leading rating agency

2014-11-01 , Gärtner, Manfred

Competence behind sovereign ratings is crucial, given that the government bond market may be vulnerable to multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling prophecies. With this in mind, this paper reviews and scrutinises official Standard & Poor's publications that address key issues surrounding the government bond market and the role of ratings. It presents a lack of competence, revealed in an inadequate grasp of crucial concepts such as multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling prophecy, obliviousness to Standard and Poor's own rating methodology, and a nonchalant treatment of facts that casts a poor light on the agency's integrity.

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The near-death experience of the Celtic Tiger : A model-driven narrative from the European sovereign debt crisis

2013-11 , Gärtner, Manfred , Griesbach, Björn , Mennillo, Giulia

This article narrates Ireland's recent odyssey from the pride and envy of Europe to kneeling supplicant through the eyes of an econometric model of the government bond market. The exercise suggests that, in essence, two developments triggered and propelled Ireland's drift towards sovereign default: first, the global financial crisis that drove Ireland into a severe recession with collapsing tax revenues and increasing unemployment; second, a gap between the post-2007 increase in sovereign default risk that can actually be linked to macroeconomic fundamentals and the much bigger increase in perceived risk reflected by high interest rates and communicated by the massive downgrades of Ireland's sovereign debt rating.

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Wage traps as a cause of illiteracy, child labor, and extreme poverty

2011-09 , Gärtner, Dennis L. , Gärtner, Manfred

When labor incomes approach subsistence levels, the labor supply curve slopes outward, because the fight for survival mandates households to look for longer work hours in response to falling wage rates. We explore conditions under which near-subsistence scenarios may imply wage traps, labor market failures that can be the cause of undernourishment, illiteracy, and child labor. After stating general conditions under which wage traps occur, we look at specific production functions typically employed in quantitative analyses of growth and development. We find that standard Cobb-Douglas production functions do not permit wage traps, whereas CES functions do. Beyond that it turns out that when subsistence requirements increase with work hours, and when work effort rises with the wage rate, up to the efficiency-wage threshold, wage traps become more likely. Policy measures such as bans on child labor, implementation of minimum wage laws, or the establishment of labor unions may quite effectively improve conditions in wage-trapped labor markets

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PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies

2011-08-01 , Gärtner, Manfred , Griesbach, Björn , Jung, Florian

This paper asks whether rating agencies played a passive role or were an active driving force during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. We address this by estimating relationships between sovereign debt ratings and macroeconomic and structural variables. We then use these equations to decompose actual ratings into systematic and arbitrary components that are not explained by previously observed procedures of rating agencies. Finally, we check whether systematic, as well as arbitrary, parts of credit ratings affect credit spreads. We find that both do affect credit spreads, which opens the possibility that arbitrary rating downgrades trigger processes of self-fulfilling prophecies that may drive even relatively healthy countries towards default. (A Working Paper Version is available at [http://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/econwp/201106.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/econwp/201106.html])

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Is there a transatlantic divide in undergraduate macroeconomics teaching?

2014 , Gärtner, Manfred , Griesbach, Björn , Jung, Florian

The global financial crisis triggered different policy responses in Europe and the United States. Interestingly, survey results suggest that there is also a significant difference in how undergraduate macroeconomics instructors responded to the crisis, with U.S. instructors placing significantly more emphasis on financial topics than their European peers. This note considers whether such differences may be attributed to differences in instructors' profiles and teaching environments. The results suggest that, rather than explaining this gap, the transatlantic divide becomes even wider when analyzed in a multivariate setting.

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Das ökonomische Einmaleins des Bankgeheimnisses

2012-02 , Gärtner, Manfred

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Wage Traps as a Cause of Illiteracy, Child Labor, and Extreme Poverty

2011-09 , Gärtner, Dennis , Gärtner, Manfred

When labor incomes approach subsistence levels, the labor supply curve slopes outward, because the fight for survival mandates households to look for longer work hours in response to falling wage rates. We explore conditions under which near-subsistence scenarios may imply wage traps, labor market failures that can be the cause of undernourishment, illiteracy, and child labor. After stating general conditions under which wage traps occur, we look at specific production functions typically employed in quantitative analyses of growth and development. We find that standard Cobb-Douglas production functions do not permit wage traps, whereas CES functions do. Beyond that it turns out that when subsistence requirements increase with work hours, and when work effort rises with the wage rate, up to the efficiency-wage threshold, wage traps become more likely. Measures such as bans on child labor, implementation of minimum wage laws, or the establishment of labor unions may quite effectively improve conditions in wage-trapped labor markets.

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Teaching Macroeconomics After the Crisis : A Survey Among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

2013-09-23 , Gärtner, Manfred , Griesbach, Björn , Jung, Florian

The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of 2010. The results show that courses feature very much the same lineups of models as they did before the crisis. A notable exception concerns public debt dynamics, which receives considerably more emphasis. The finer fabric of undergraduate macroeconomics teaching, however, shows substantial shifts: a host of topics related to financial markets has entered the curriculum, and there is more interest in economic history, the history of economic thought and case studies. [http://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/econwp/201120.html Link zum zugrunde liegenden Diskussionspapier]

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Die Macht der Meinungsmacher : Ratingagenturen und staatliche Verschuldungsdynamiken

2012-04-24 , Gärtner, Manfred , Griesbach, Björn , Jung, Florian

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Labor Market Integration and Its Effect on Child Labor

2011-06-08 , Gärtner, Manfred

This note demonstrates that when developing countries remove barriers to migration and integrate their labor markets, children may be driven out of schools and into informal or paid employment in the comparatively rich countries. In industrialized countries, the same mechanism might drive families into social security or government-subsidized jobs

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