Markus Schwaninger
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Schwaninger
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Markus
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markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch
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+41 71 224 2382
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  • Publication
    New Frontiers in the Validation of Simulation Models - Structural Dominance Analysis
    (Springer, 2009-05-29)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Grösser, Stefan N.
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    ;
    Quesada-Arencibia, Alexis
    Models should be relevant for coping with the complexity of the real world. At the same time, the methods by which they are constructed and validated must be rigorous; otherwise the quality of the model suffers. We take a test of model structure, demonstrating a new technique of analysis of the model's structure called Structural Dominance Analysis (SDA). SDA has been developed in the science of complex systems [Kampmann and Oliva 2006; Kampmann and Oliva 2009]. SDA makes use of one axiom of System Dynamics: model structure influences the behavioral outcome of a simulation [Forrester 1993]. In principle, SDA evaluates the relative partial influence of individual feedback loops on the behavior of the variables of interest. Based on this evaluation, loop dominance then signifies which particular piece of model structure is dominant, i.e., most influential for the behavior in a certain period of time. Research about loop dominance has bred several formal and informal techniques to enable SDA [Kampmann and Oliva 2008]. In this paper, we revert to an behavioral technique by Ford [1999]. The rationale for using SDA as a validation method is to compare the discovered dominant model structures with the model structures the modeler or expert perceives as dominant in the real system under study. Especially, the comparison of the shifts of dominance between structures over time is a fruitful source for model validation. In this respect, the presented approach is based on a formal quantitative analysis, but for the interpretation it relies on a qualitative comparison of the model with the real system under study. The Structural Dominance Test (SDT) is a means of validating the macro-structure of a simulation model. To apply SDA for the issue of validation is a novelty of this paper. Its application requires a feedback based, continuous-time simulation model, as used in System Dynamics. A brief case study demonstrates the new technique for validation purposes.
    Type: conference paper
    Journal: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS)
    Volume: Volume 5717
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-04772-5_8
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/76063
    Scopus© Citations 3
  • Publication
    Understanding the System Dynamics of High-Technology Markets : Pólya Processes with Positive Feedback, Path Dependence and Lock-In
    (Springer, 2012)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Mandl, Christoph
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    ;
    Quesada-Arencibia, Alexis
    This paper relies on complexity theory to gain new insights into the dynamics of high-technology markets. We are making use of the Pólya process model to explain these dynamics. This classical model highlights the "mechanism" of positive feedback, which gives rise to the phenomenon of path dependence and lock-in. Implications for management in high-technology markets are derived. Finally, some recommendations for the design of business innovations are given.
    Type: book section
    Issue: 6928
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-27549-4_17
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/92895
    Scopus© Citations 2
  • Publication
    Modeling with Archetypes: An Effective Approach to Dealing with Complexity
    (Springer, 2003)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    In the face of growing complexities, agents who lead or manage organizations must revert to better models. This proposition is based on the Conant/Ashby Theorem, which says that the results of a management process are determined by the quality of the model on which that process is based. The author proposes that archetype-based modeling is a promising way to enhance the behavioral repertory of agents in organizations and society: It aids in achieving better models and thus in coping with complexity more effectively. Experiences with System Dynamics modeling of real-world issues and problems as well as the pertinent results achieved are reported. The special flavor of the cases described lies in a new quality and speed of learning-by-modeling, which was unachievable a few years ago. This is now enabled by a) an advanced methodology of modeling and model validation, b) the conceptual maturity of systems archetypes, and c) the availability of powerful simulation software.
    Type: book section
    Issue: 2809
    DOI: 10.1007/b13239
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/70656
  • Publication
    Scrutinizing the Sustainability of Business Models : System Dynamics for Robust Strategies
    ( 2014-06-30)
    Köpp, Sebastian
    ;
    Schwaninger, Markus
    The success or failure of a business hinges in the first place on the model that forms the basis of its commercial activities. Business models are needed in all kinds of enterprises. Often these models are not scrutinized with the necessary depth. In situations of high planning uncertainty, e.g., when starting a new business, the lack of data tools to assess the sustainability of business models tends to mislead investors and managers to superficial appraisals. The purpose of this contribution is to demonstrate how such an assess-ment can be organized, even when data are very scarce, in a way that it leads to crucial insights for strategists. We demonstrate how dynamic modeling and simulation can foster understanding, enabling decision-makers to select between sustainable versus flawed conceptions, and opening them clues for better ways of selecting and developing new strategic fields of business activity. For this aim, we have chosen a case study from e-commerce, within a family of business models which is novel and sufficiently complex as an exemplar. Additionally we have tested our findings on another business within the same sector. We show that with the help of System Dynamics modeling and simulation the test of a business model's sustainability can deliver high value to investors and man-agers, helping avoid fatal mistakes, and taking new opportunities.
    Type: discussion paper
    Issue: 60
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/86700
  • Publication
    Model-Based Management (MBM): A Research Agenda
    (Universität St. Gallen, 2009-02-03)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    The purpose of this paper is to introduce and conceptualize the topic of Model-Based Management (MBM) in organizations. The importance of qualitative and quantitative models for management is highlighted, and a research agenda for this new topic is proposed. This agenda promises to make a contribution to the use of models for higher managerial effectiveness. The role of models for managerial purposes has been under-researched and often misunderstood. In this paper, an analysis of the concept, role and function of models in the context of management and organization is undertaken. A new understanding of both the concept and role of models in management, grounded in system science, is proposed, which the planned research program will explore. The gain promised by such an innovative scope derives from its high potential: Both theory and practice can benefit from the envisaged research. Theoretically speaking, advances in management and organization science can be achieved, while on the practical side the gained insights will caution managers and leaders against succumbing to the traps of complexity, while radically improving their managerial effectiveness. Ultimately, MBM should enhance the intelligence, adaptiveness and viability of organizations of any kind: private, public, non-profit, large or small.
    Type: discussion paper
    Issue: 57
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/76430
  • Publication
    Model Validation: Philosophy and Methods
    ( 2009-02-15)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Grösser, Stefan N.
    Building better models is crucial for coping with complexity in general, and for the management of organizations in particular. This paper discusses the epistemological aspects of model validation for the achivement of high-quality models. Then it provides an overview of validation methods. The logic of validation is demonstrated by introducing the Structural Dominance Test as a means for testing the correspondence of the structural dominance between model and reality.
    Type: presentation
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/76405