Markus Schwaninger
Former Member
Thumbnail Image
Title
Prof. em. Dr.
Last Name
Schwaninger
First name
Markus
Email
markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch
Phone
+41 71 224 2382
Homepage

Filters

5
Reset filters

Settings
Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • Publication
    New Frontiers in the Validation of Simulation Models - Structural Dominance Analysis
    (Springer, 2009-05-29)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Grösser, Stefan N.
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    ;
    Quesada-Arencibia, Alexis
    Models should be relevant for coping with the complexity of the real world. At the same time, the methods by which they are constructed and validated must be rigorous; otherwise the quality of the model suffers. We take a test of model structure, demonstrating a new technique of analysis of the model's structure called Structural Dominance Analysis (SDA). SDA has been developed in the science of complex systems [Kampmann and Oliva 2006; Kampmann and Oliva 2009]. SDA makes use of one axiom of System Dynamics: model structure influences the behavioral outcome of a simulation [Forrester 1993]. In principle, SDA evaluates the relative partial influence of individual feedback loops on the behavior of the variables of interest. Based on this evaluation, loop dominance then signifies which particular piece of model structure is dominant, i.e., most influential for the behavior in a certain period of time. Research about loop dominance has bred several formal and informal techniques to enable SDA [Kampmann and Oliva 2008]. In this paper, we revert to an behavioral technique by Ford [1999]. The rationale for using SDA as a validation method is to compare the discovered dominant model structures with the model structures the modeler or expert perceives as dominant in the real system under study. Especially, the comparison of the shifts of dominance between structures over time is a fruitful source for model validation. In this respect, the presented approach is based on a formal quantitative analysis, but for the interpretation it relies on a qualitative comparison of the model with the real system under study. The Structural Dominance Test (SDT) is a means of validating the macro-structure of a simulation model. To apply SDA for the issue of validation is a novelty of this paper. Its application requires a feedback based, continuous-time simulation model, as used in System Dynamics. A brief case study demonstrates the new technique for validation purposes.
    Type: conference paper
    Journal: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS)
    Volume: Volume 5717
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-04772-5_8
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/76063
    Scopus© Citations 3
  • Publication
    Anticipating the Unexpected: Simulating a Health Care System Showing Counterintuitive Behavior
    (Springer, 2018)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    ;
    Quesada-Arencibia, Alexis
    Type: book section
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/101568
  • Publication
    Escaping the Linearity Trap : Better Simulation Models for Management Support
    (Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Grösser, Stefan N.
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    ;
    Quesada-Arencibia, Alexis
    This contribution aims to show a way towards better models for management support. We compare linear and nonlinear models in terms of their respective performance. Based on a case study, the respective benefits and shortcomings are fleshed out. A linear spreadsheet model and a nonlinear System Dynamics model are used to deal with one and the same issue: capacity planning in a large telecommunications company. Our analysis refers to both the qualities of the models and the process of model building in that firm. The necessity of non-linear models, when dealing with complex dynamic issues, is substantiated, and strategies for the implementation of such models in organizations are outlined.
    Type: book section
    Issue: 8111
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-53856-8_12
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/90420
  • Publication
    Understanding the System Dynamics of High-Technology Markets : Pólya Processes with Positive Feedback, Path Dependence and Lock-In
    (Springer, 2012)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Mandl, Christoph
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    ;
    Quesada-Arencibia, Alexis
    This paper relies on complexity theory to gain new insights into the dynamics of high-technology markets. We are making use of the Pólya process model to explain these dynamics. This classical model highlights the "mechanism" of positive feedback, which gives rise to the phenomenon of path dependence and lock-in. Implications for management in high-technology markets are derived. Finally, some recommendations for the design of business innovations are given.
    Type: book section
    Issue: 6928
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-27549-4_17
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/92895
    Scopus© Citations 2
  • Publication
    Modeling with Archetypes: An Effective Approach to Dealing with Complexity
    (Springer, 2003)
    Schwaninger, Markus
    ;
    Moreno-Díaz, Roberto
    ;
    Pichler, Franz
    In the face of growing complexities, agents who lead or manage organizations must revert to better models. This proposition is based on the Conant/Ashby Theorem, which says that the results of a management process are determined by the quality of the model on which that process is based. The author proposes that archetype-based modeling is a promising way to enhance the behavioral repertory of agents in organizations and society: It aids in achieving better models and thus in coping with complexity more effectively. Experiences with System Dynamics modeling of real-world issues and problems as well as the pertinent results achieved are reported. The special flavor of the cases described lies in a new quality and speed of learning-by-modeling, which was unachievable a few years ago. This is now enabled by a) an advanced methodology of modeling and model validation, b) the conceptual maturity of systems archetypes, and c) the availability of powerful simulation software.
    Type: book section
    Issue: 2809
    DOI: 10.1007/b13239
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/70656