Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • Publication
    Towards Predicting Supplier Resilience: A Tree-Based Model Approach
    With looming uncertainties and disruptions in today’s global supply chains, such as lockdown measures to contain COVID-19, supply chain resilience has gained considerable attention recently. While decision-makers in procurement have emphasized the importance of traditional risk assessment, its shortcomings can be complemented by resilience. However, while most resilience studies are too qualitative in nature and abstract to inform supplier decisions, many quantitative resilience studies frequently rely on complex and impractical operations research models fed with simulated supplier data. Thus there is the need for an integrative, intermediate way for the practical and automated prediction of resilience with real-world data. We therefore propose a random forest-based supervised learning method to predict supplier resilience, outperforming the current human benchmark evaluation by 139 percent. The model is trained on both internal ERP data and publicly available secondary data to help assess suppliers in a pre-screening step, before deciding which supplier to select for a specific product. The results of this study are to be integrated into a software tool developed for measuring and tracking the total cost of supply chain resilience from the perspective of purchasing decisions.
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  • Publication
    modum.io (B): Bidding Farewell to Crypto
    (Harvard Business School, 2021-03)
    Huang, Laura
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    Murray, Alex
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    Hofmann, Erik
    After a successful initial coin offering (ICO) in the fall of 2017, the Switzerland-based supply chain technology company modum.io began trading its MOD token on various exchanges. The financial resources generated from the token sale set up the modum.io team to focus on operations, launch the company’s product, increase revenue, onboard new customers, and hire new staff. In the course of the cryptocurrency bear market of 2018–2019, however, the value of the MOD token deteriorated to the point where it was delisted from major exchanges. Mainly caused by the lack of regulatory compliance of security tokens on the exchanges, these delistings partially killed the liquidity of the MOD token. In light of market and regulatory developments, and with external pressure increasing, modum.io scrambled to identify alternatives to solve its predicament. In 2019, cofounder Marc Degen and his partners decided to elaborate different options in order to secure the future of modum.io while simultaneously offering a satisfactory solution for all stakeholders. In their discussions, they saw three potential paths forward from which they must choose: (1) continue as is, (2) convert outstanding tokens into some form of company equity, or (3) liquidate the company and distribute the proceeds to the share- and tokenholders. Because this decision was strategically crucial for the future of modum.io, the board of directors did not want to rush to a conclusion; they preferred to thoroughly review the benefits and pitfalls of each option.
  • Publication
    Operationalizing supply-side resilience: Toward a cost-effectiveness analysis of managerial practices addressing disruptive threats for buyers in manufacturing companies
    (Universität St. Gallen, 2023-02-20)
    Unexpected supply disruptions originating in upstream supply chains (SCs) and escalating downstream have cost manufacturing companies (MCs) billions of Swiss francs in potential revenue over the past few years. Current risk management methods contain too many statistical limitations to address these risks, thus supply-side resilience (SSRES) has become a topic of strategic importance for MCs. While MCs are currently under pressure to find the right managerial practices to build their resilience capabilities, their buyers often have difficulties grasping the concept. This incomprehension leads to a lack of understanding of which practices to adopt and how much these practices cost. While research on resilience is proliferating, it is generally fragmented and provides no holistic view of SSRES practices with the possibility of conducting pragmatic CEAs. The present research aims to develop a method to operationalize SSRES through: (1) conceptualizing, (2) measuring the effectiveness of practices, and (3) measuring the cost of practices. The practice-based view (PBV), contingency theory (CT), and rational choice theory (RCT) are applied as theoretical lenses for the investigations. The research comprises one purely qualitative and two mixed methods studies devoted to one operationalization component each. The first study, on the conceptualization of SSRES, entails a comparative case study design with six cases. The second study, on effectiveness measurement of SSRES practices, incorporates a systematic literature review and a case study. The third study, on cost measurement of SSRES practices, draws on a general case study design with five cases. A synthesis integrates the methods for an adaptable CEA concept. The results provide (1) a concept of SSRES including contingency variables and a catalog of relevant practices, (2) guidance for effectiveness measurement with specific KPIs, and (3) guidance on how to estimate the cost of practices. The dissertation culminates in the development of RESPIRE, a versatile practice recommendation system based on the methods and results of the first three studies. The RESPIRE system equips decision-makers to not only better understand SSRES, but also to manage and control the practices continuously. Thereby, this dissertation helps to address the dearth of empirical research on SSRES practices and guides MCs in developing resilience management strategies.
  • Publication
    Einkaufsoptimierung in Echtzeit
    ( 2021-06) ;
    Hofmann, Erik
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    Locker, Alwin
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