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Roger Moser
Title
Prof. Dr.
Last Name
Moser
First name
Roger
Email
roger.moser@unisg.ch
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1 - 3 of 3
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PublicationCoping with Strategic Uncertainty: Framework Development and Scenario Derivation for a JV Decision in the Russian Truck IndustryPurpose Across country and regional borders firms are faced with the question whether to address individual markets on a stand-alone basis or cooperatively. In order to support such strategic decisions, this paper aims to develop a decision framework accounting for the most relevant market dynamics affecting joint venture (JV) decisions, particularly in the truck industry. Moreover, the authors apply the framework to an expert Delphi and scenario approach to back a Western original equipment manufacturers (OEM’s) JV decision in the truck industry in Russia. Based on country-specific projections structured along the globally applicable decision framework, the authors serve executives’ individual information demand in an institutionally unique emerging market environment. Design/methodology/approach Online real-time expert Delphi study; scenario analysis; and expert workshops were used in this study. Findings Among other insights, the results predict hard times for Russian OEMs as they will likely face strong foreign competition, leading to decreased sales volumes and market shares. Although some experts doubt the survival of several Russian truck manufacturers, the Delphi sheds light on possible strategic responses, including consolidation, cooperation or focusing on new markets. Based on the Delphi results and an additional expert workshop, we draw multiple scenarios addressing, particularly, uncertain aspects of the industry’s development and their likely impact on the key stakeholder groups. Originality/value Although there are some studies following a similar methodological approach as that in this study (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010; Gnatzy and Moser, 2012), the authors break new ground in developing a JV-dedicated decision framework and applying it to a special emerging market industry setup.Type: journal articleJournal: Foresight: The journal of futures studies, strategic thinking and policyVolume: 18Issue: 4
Scopus© Citations 4 -
PublicationDecision Making in Emerging Markets: The Delphi Approach's Contribution to Coping with Uncertainty and EquivocalityFirms in emerging markets are particularly challenged by uncertainty and equivocality in their long-term oriented decision making. These markets are characterized by dynamic institutional contexts especially affecting the predictability of future developments in the business environment. Based on the organizational information processing theory (OIPT), we first analyze how widely applied decision theories, organizational as well as procedural approaches contribute to coping with uncertainty and equivocality in emerging markets from a decision-making perspective. Accounting for inherent information asymmetries, we then elaborate the potential of future-oriented Delphi studies to serve as an information processing aid. To demonstrate the applicability of Delphi-based studies in the context of emerging markets we draw on case examples centered on China's and India's automotive industry, India's aerospace and defense industry as well as the health insurance industry in rural India in 2020.Type: journal articleJournal: Journal of Business ResearchVolume: 68Issue: 5
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PublicationScenario development for an evolving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business model innovationThe article discusses the use of Delphi-based scenarios for the development of business model innovations in emerging markets. Motivated by insights from information processing and institutional theory we present a scenario development process combining a PEST (political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological) and a stakeholder approach. We exemplify its use for the evolving health insurance market in rural India and present how our approach can be used to study possible future developments relevant for business model innovations. Key insights are that NGOs might play a crucial role along with the regulatory support of the Government of India and significant advances in mobile payment technologies.Type: journal articleJournal: Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeVolume: 79Issue: 4
Scopus© Citations 31