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  4. Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades
 
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Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades

Series
School of Finance Working Paper Series
Type
working paper
Author(s)
Orlov, Vitaly
Abstract (De)
This paper shows that currency carry trades can be rationalized by the time-varying risk premia originating from the sovereign solvency risk. We find that solvency risk is a key determinant of risk premia in the cross section of carry trade returns, as its covariance with returns captures a substantial part of the cross-sectional variation of carry trade returns. Importantly, low interest rate currencies serve as insurance against solvency risk, while high interest rate currencies expose investors to more risk. The results are not attenuated by existing risks and pass a broad range of various robustness checks.
Language
English
Keywords
JEL classifications: F31
G15
Keywords: Solvency Risk; Carry Trades; Risk Premia
HSG Classification
contribution to scientific community
HSG Profile Area
SOF - System-wide Risk in the Financial System
Publisher
SoF-HSG
Official URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2735441
URL
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/116442
Subject(s)
  • finance

Eprints ID
253494
File(s)
18_02_Orlov et al_Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades.pdf (584 KB)
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