Financial Engineering for Preventive Health Assets: Investment Memo & Proposals

The EDEN Pilot Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) transforms fragmented preventive health-digital triage, lab diagnostics, and insurer settlement-into a single, bankable infrastructure asset, solving the timing mismatch between upfront screening costs and long-term avoided care savings. Prior analyses show digital screening for type 2 diabetes is highly cost-effective, with an ICER of CHF 2,912 per QALY and a 93.2% probability of cost-effectiveness. Realizing this value requires overcoming a timing mismatch in cash flows: nationwide rollout creates an immediate "prevalence tax," requiring about CHF 27M in Year 1 to clear the backlog of undiagnosed cases. The Preventive SPV closes this gap by financing low-cost digital triage and confirmatory blood tests (CHF 75), matching these upfront costs with future savings from avoided complications. Pro forma modeling shows strict success thresholds: digital triage must be priced at ≥ 40 per month, customer acquisition costs must stay < 200, and screening uptake must reach ≥ 10%. Under these assumptions, the SPV becomes cash-flow positive in Year 4 but has only a 57% chance of cumulative breakeven over seven years. By tracking real-world digital attrition and diagnostic conversion, the SPV tests the intervention's viability frontier. Current modeling shows a strong median IRR of 46.2% but a slightly negative median NPV (CHF-127,147) under baseline. Reducing this operational uncertainty generates the clinical and economic evidence needed to support pathway-based reimbursement and to shift from direct-to-consumer revenues to sustainable B2B integration ahead of full national scaling.