https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch
University of St.Gallenennew publications - Matthias FenglerAlexandria::new publicationsMeasuring spot variance spillovers when (co)variances are time-varying – the case of multivariate GARCH modelsFengler, M., & Herwartz, H. (2015). Measuring spot variance spillovers when (co)variances are time-varying – the case of multivariate GARCH models. --- In highly integrated markets, news spreads at a fast pace and bedevils risk
monitoring and optimal asset allocation. We therefore propose global and dis-
aggregated measures of variance transmission that allow one to assess spillovers
locally in time. Key to our approach is the vector ARMA representation of the
second-order dynamics of the popular BEKK model. In an empirical applica-
tion to a ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/240050
2015-03-25A simple and general approach to fitting the discount curve under no-arbitrage constraintsFengler, M., & Hin, L. Y. (2014). A simple and general approach to fitting the discount curve under no-arbitrage constraints. Discussion Paper no. 2014-23. St. Gallen: SEPS, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. --- We suggest a simple and general approach to fitting the discount curve under no-arbitrage constraints based on a penalized shape-constrained B-spline. Our approach accommodates B-splines of any order and fitting both under the L1 and the L2 loss functions. Simulations and an empirical analysis of US STRIPS data from 2001-2009 suggest that an active knot search and splines of order three and four...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/234214
2014-09-04A variance spillover analysis without covariances: what do we miss?Fengler, M., & Gisler, K. (2015). A variance spillover analysis without covariances: what do we miss?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51(3), 1-61, DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.11.006. --- We evaluate the relevance of covariances in the transmission mechanism of variance spillovers across the US stock, US bond and gold markets from July 2003 to December 2012. For that purpose, we perform a comparative spillover analysis between a model that considers covariances and a model that considers only variances. Our results emphasise the importance of covariances. Including covariances ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/231528
2014-05-12Additive modeling of realized variance: tests for parametric specifications and structural breaksFengler, M., Mammen, E., & Vogt, M. (2013). Additive modeling of realized variance: tests for parametric specifications and structural breaks. Discussion Paper. St. Gallen: SEPS, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. --- For an additive autoregression model, we study two types of testing problems. First, a parametric specification of a component function is compared against a nonparametric fit. Second, two nonparametric fits of two different time periods are tested for equality. We apply the theory to a nonparametric extension of the linear heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model. The linear HAR model is widely ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/228047
2013-12-17Are classical option pricing models consistent with observed option second-order moments? Evidence from high-frequency dataAudrino, F., & Fengler, M., HSG (Eds.), (2013). Are classical option pricing models consistent with observed option second-order moments? Evidence from high-frequency data. Discussion paper series. St. Gallen: SEPS. --- We suggest a joint analysis of ex-post intra-day variability in an option and its associated underlying asset market as a novel means of validating an option pricing model. For this purpose, we introduce the notion of option realized variance, by which we mean the cumulative variance realized by the sample path of successive option price observations. In concurrently observing the realized path ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/221836
2013-04-05Fitting the Smile Revisited: A Least Squares Kernel Estimator for the Implied Volatility SurfaceFengler, M., & Wang, Q. (2003). Fitting the Smile Revisited: A Least Squares Kernel Estimator for the Implied Volatility Surface. Discussion Paper: SEPS, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland (St. Gallen). --- Nonparametric methods for estimating the implied volatility surface are very popular, since they do not impose a specific functional form on the estimate. Traditionally, these methods are two-step estimators. The first step requires to extract implied volatility data from observed option prices, then the actual fitting algorithm is applied. These two-step estimators may be seriously biased when ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/216406
2012-09-10Managing Risk with a Realized Copula ParameterFengler, M., & Okhrin, O. (2014). Managing Risk with a Realized Copula Parameter. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis(forthcoming), 1-1, DOI:10.1016/j.csda.2014.07.011. --- A dynamic copula model is introduced, in which the copula structure is
inferred from the realized covariance matrix estimated from within-day
high-frequency data. The estimation is carried out in a method-of-moments
fashion using Hoeding's lemma. Applying this procedure day by day gives
rise to a time series of daily copula parameters which can be approximated by
an autoregressive time ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/216403
2012-09-10A Dynamic Copula Approach to Recovering the Index Implied Volatility SkewFengler, M., Herwartz, H., & Werner, C. (2012). A Dynamic Copula Approach to Recovering the Index Implied Volatility Skew. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 10(3), 457-493, DOI:10.1093/jjfinec/nbr016. --- Equity index implied volatility functions are known to be excessively skewed in comparison with implied volatility at the single stock level. We study this stylized fact for the case of a major German stock index, the DAX, by recovering index implied volatility from simulating the 30-dimensional return system of all DAX constituents. Option prices are computed after risk neutralization of the ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/207330
2011-11-21Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call-option price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraintsFengler, M., & Hin, L. Y. (2015). Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call-option price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraints. Journal of Econometrics, 184(2), 242-261, DOI:10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.09.003. --- We suggest a semi-nonparametric estimator for the call-option price surface. The estimator is a bivariate tensor-product B-spline. To enforce no-arbitrage constraints across strikes and expiry dates, we establish sufficient no-arbitrage conditions on the control net of the B-spline surface. The conditions are linear and therefore allow for an implementation of the estimator by means of ...
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/207116
2011-11-14Price-setting and price-adjustment behavior for fast-moving consumer goodsFengler, M., & Winter, J. K. (1999). Price-setting and price-adjustment behavior for fast-moving consumer goods. In Social and Economic Research with Consumer Panel Data (pp. 95-113). Mannheim: MEA. ---
https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/publications/206777
2011-11-03