Land-Use Change and Socio-Economic Outcomes: A Global Longitudinal Assessment
Journal
12th International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of Environment
Type
conference contribution
Date Issued
2026-04-27
Author(s)
Abstract
Land-use change does not only transform landscapes; it reshapes labour markets, economic structures and social outcomes, yet these socio-economic dynamics remain insufficiently researched at a global scale. Existing literature on land-use management largely focuses on short-term effects, specific policies, limited geographical areas or environmental consequences, leaving long-term cross-country socio-economic dynamics underexplored. This work addresses this gap through a large-scale longitudinal analysis of land-use and socio-economic indicators from 1960 to the present across 213 countries.
Drawing on more than 16,000 World Bank indicators, we analyse whether land-use change predicts changes in socio-economic indicators. We focus on the relationship between changes in forest, agricultural and arable land and a broad spectrum of socio-economic outcomes. Growth rates are calculated for each indicator and country, followed by time-series regression analyses incorporating lag structures of up to ten years. Granger causality tests complement the modelling approach to assess directional relationships.
The findings show systematic, heterogeneous and statistically significant associations between land-use dynamics and socio-economic development. Changes in forest land use show particularly broad correlations with indicators related to consumption, communication, employment, GDP, health and price-related indicators. Agricultural and arable land-use changes also demonstrate significant associations, though across a narrower set of socio-economic domains. The results further indicate differentiated gender-related effects in employment and health outcomes, as well as evidence of both positive and negative externalities. For example, certain land-use changes are associated with labour market shifts and fiscal indicators, while others correlate with health and demographic variables.
Particularly in countries covered by the LandShift project – France, Greece, Italy, Poland, Ukraine – forest land-use changes exhibit statistically significant correlations with inclusive socioeconomic indicators, whereas agricultural land-use changes display correlations with more diverse and context-specific socioeconomic indicators. Overall, the results expand existing empirical evidence and broaden the range of socio-economic indicators shown to respond to land-use change.
By systematically identifying observable macro-level socio-economic patterns associated with land-use dynamics, our study complements existing work on non-market valuation of agriculture and forestry while highlighting both market-driven adjustments and ecosystem-service-related externalities. By providing a globally comparable, long-term assessment of socio-economic responses to land-use change, this study contributes to integrated land governance research and sustainability policy analysis. Our findings underline the importance of systematically incorporating socio-economic trajectories into land-use planning and policy design.
Drawing on more than 16,000 World Bank indicators, we analyse whether land-use change predicts changes in socio-economic indicators. We focus on the relationship between changes in forest, agricultural and arable land and a broad spectrum of socio-economic outcomes. Growth rates are calculated for each indicator and country, followed by time-series regression analyses incorporating lag structures of up to ten years. Granger causality tests complement the modelling approach to assess directional relationships.
The findings show systematic, heterogeneous and statistically significant associations between land-use dynamics and socio-economic development. Changes in forest land use show particularly broad correlations with indicators related to consumption, communication, employment, GDP, health and price-related indicators. Agricultural and arable land-use changes also demonstrate significant associations, though across a narrower set of socio-economic domains. The results further indicate differentiated gender-related effects in employment and health outcomes, as well as evidence of both positive and negative externalities. For example, certain land-use changes are associated with labour market shifts and fiscal indicators, while others correlate with health and demographic variables.
Particularly in countries covered by the LandShift project – France, Greece, Italy, Poland, Ukraine – forest land-use changes exhibit statistically significant correlations with inclusive socioeconomic indicators, whereas agricultural land-use changes display correlations with more diverse and context-specific socioeconomic indicators. Overall, the results expand existing empirical evidence and broaden the range of socio-economic indicators shown to respond to land-use change.
By systematically identifying observable macro-level socio-economic patterns associated with land-use dynamics, our study complements existing work on non-market valuation of agriculture and forestry while highlighting both market-driven adjustments and ecosystem-service-related externalities. By providing a globally comparable, long-term assessment of socio-economic responses to land-use change, this study contributes to integrated land governance research and sustainability policy analysis. Our findings underline the importance of systematically incorporating socio-economic trajectories into land-use planning and policy design.
Language
English
HSG Classification
contribution to scientific community
Refereed
Yes
Subject(s)
Division(s)