Klaus Spremann

According to the Basel regulation banks may use internal risk models to measure interest rate risk and calculate regulatory capital requirements. Under its pillar II the Basel framework grants leeway to banks in their choice of these models. We therefore focus on how well interest rate models describe real interest rate movements empirically and which impact the model choice has on the economic value of bank equity during the financial crisis. Furthermore, we address the question how different choices of interest rate models affect the overall financial stability. To this end we estimate eight different interest rate models for three different currencies (USD, EUR, CHF) using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Then we approximate the balance sheet of a typical Swiss bank during the financial crisis and run Monte Carlo simulations of the balance sheet using the estimated interest rate models. Our results show that the required economic value of equity for a bank varies considerably with the different choices of interest rate models. However, the interest rate models which are empirically best fitting do not imply aggregate financial stability. Thus, banks´ choices of interest rate models to calculate regulatory capital requirements may have a crucial impact on overall financial stability.

Entrepreneurs and Investors found ventures for transferring technology and bringing it closer to the market. Focusing on a situation in which the investor exercises hold-up at the disadvantage of the entrepreneur, this paper works on three points: We identify (1) conditions which make hold-up possible, and discuss (2) measures which help entrepreneurs to protect themselves against hold-up. (3) The balance of powers in a venture is related to returns to scale. Overall, the paper contributes to the theory of small-seized firms which are exposed to high uncertainties including behavioral opportunism.

According to F. A. Hayek, Keynes' General Theory neglects an analysis of the production structure. As a contribution to this research gap, we look at companies' decisions to finance investments and at their agility to adjust their capital structure. We thus study the relationship between capital structure to finance corporate production and shifts in aggregate demand. Target capital structure determinants and speeds of adjustment to these target capital structures will be analyzed for a geographically comprehensive sample of 2,706 companies listed in Asia, Europe and the U.S.A. in the period 1995 - 2009. Aggregate demand turns out to be the coordinating force which determines managers' choices of target capital structures. The speed of adjustments towards target capital structures indicate that firms are agile in adapting to their targets. Our results provide evidence on Keynes' General Theory from a firm level perspective: Firms respond quickly to shifts in aggregate demand by adjusting capital and production structure correspondingly.

Studies on the capital structure of Asian corporations are rare, and most of those studies support different explanations of financing decisions compared to the ones accepted for the USA and Europe. We test relationships that are typical of the Tradeoff Theory and the Pecking Order Theory, and analyze the speed of adjustment toward target capital structures for 1239 companies with capitalizations of more than US$1 billion listed on 11 Asian stock exchanges and belonging to eight industrial sectors. Our results are based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations for the determinants of capital structures and system-GMM estimations for the speed of adjustment, and robustness is checked using book leverage and market leverage on the basis of ordinary least squares estimations and two-stage least squares estimations. We contribute to the literature by finding strong evidence that companies in Asia pursue target capital structures, as predicted by the Tradeoff Theory. Only in one respect does the Pecking Order Theory demonstrate superior explanatory power. We further show that the convergence to target capital structures is consistent with international evidence, estimated at an annual adjustment speed of 24-45% of original leverage levels. Finally, our comparison among eight industries shows that the capital structure choice in Asia is influenced by fixed effects.

The Fama-French-Methodology (1993-1998) offers cross-sectional explanations of returns by taking the specially designed portfolios SMB and HML as additional factors. It is acknowledged that these factors are related to some forms of risk (they bear premia) which, by researchers is often proposed to be related to the uncertainty with respect to macroeconomic production and aggregate consumption. In more recent research a momentum factor is included in order to improve the explanatory power of the Fama-French-Model. We use data from business cycles 1926-2007 to show that SMB represents the risks related to the very early phase of an upswing while HML may be related to the uncertainty whether a business cycle will continue to gain depth and strength (or shifts back into recession). In contrast to SMB and HML, we do not find momentum to be related to risks associated with particular phases of the business cycle.