Roland Füss

We test for return co-movements among international commercial real estate markets. Our spatial econometric model estimates the market exposure to the performance of a reference portfolio. This benchmark portfolio contains all markets with a higher level of transparency, which reveals valuable information about the pricing mechanism. Empirical evidence suggests that these indirect effects transmit from more transparent to less transparent markets. We then study the predictive power of different familiarity-based channels to overcome entry barriers by predicting returns in less transparent property markets. The evaluation of the prediction performance indicates that observed price signals in highly transparent markets are attributed to less transparent markets, which we interpret as informational herding.

As symbolized by vacant office buildings, empty shopping malls and abandoned flats in metropolitan areas, the new coronavirus disease 2019 has severely impacted real estate markets. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of the latest academic insights into how this pandemic has affected the housing, commercial real estate and the mortgage market. Moreover, these findings are linked to comprehensive statistics of each real estate sector’s performance during the crisis. Finally, the paper includes an outlook and discusses possible future developments in each real estate segment.

The value of land is determined by the locations’ attractiveness and the degree of regulation. When land regulations are binding, e.g. when a restriction on the maximum floor area ratio exists, the best use land price can be directly expressed as a function of the maximum floor area ratio and local amenities. We show theoretically and empirically how this approach can be used to determine land values from residential rents. From our empirical results, we derive two main sources for a monocentric structure of land prices. First, the location attractiveness of centrally located dwellings makes land prices more expensive. Second, as the maximum floor area ratio is high in central areas, the regulation works as a multiplier for land prices and inflates prices accordingly. Our model gives insights into the determinants of urban land prices and provides a useful approach for land appraisal in urban regions where land transactions are scarce.

This paper examines the dependence in irrational sentiments across housing, commercial property, and stock markets. Our empirical results document an important and lasting impact that commercial real estate sentiment and returns have on broader financial markets. We also show that the cross-over effects of market sentiments are not consistent with cross-over effects in market returns. Sentiments and returns in housing and stock markets exhibit strong dependence on other markets, whereas they evolve independently in commercial real estate. While housing and stock market returns respond to irrational sentiment in commercial real estate markets, the opposite is not true.

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy "ticker" news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the likelihood of price jumps and independent of the magnitude of news surprises or pre-announcement trading activity. We therefore interpret this variable as a measure of additional uncertainty in the market, which is resolved by macroeconomic news as "hard" facts.

Multivariate GARCH models have been designed as an extension of their univariate counterparts. Such a view is appealing from a modeling perspective but imposes correlation dynamics that are similar to time-varying volatility. In this paper, we argue that correlations are quite different in nature. We demonstrate that the highly unstable and erratic behavior that is typically observed for the correlation among financial assets is to a large extent a statistical artefact. We provide evidence that spurious correlation dynamics occur in response to financial events that are sufficiently large to cause a structural break in the time-series of correlations. A measure for the autocovariance structure of conditional correlations allows us to formally demonstrate that the volatility and the persistence of daily correlations are not primarily driven by financial news but by the level of the underlying true correlation. Our results indicate that a rolling-window sample correlation is often a better choice for empirical applications in finance.

This paper investigates the impact of changes in risk perception on bond markets triggered by the 2007-08 financial crisis. Using a methodology novel to empirical finance, we quantify the increase in credit spreads caused by changes in risk pricing and changes in risk factors. The lasting increase in credit spreads is almost exclusively due to time-varying prices of risk. We interpret this as a change in risk perception which provides a possible solution to the credit spread puzzle. Default premia spiked during the crisis and did not return to their pre-crisis levels. Liquidity premia increased during and after the crisis.

This paper examines the factors influencing the liquidity allocation between local and foreign dual listings. Based on a comprehensive data set covering the period between 2001 and 2011, empirical results suggest that the fraction of trading in the foreign listing decreases with a higher degree of stock market Integration measured as the stock price correlation with the world market. Furthermore, the analysis of individual cross-listings reveals that both an improvement of a country’s state of economic development and a better regulatory Environment significantly affect the allocation of trading. While an improvement in economic development increases both, local and foreign liquidity, a strengthening of regulatory standards leads to a decrease in trading volumes at foreign exchanges. Finally, the liquidity share in the foreign listing is found to decrease over time, a trend which turns out to be driven by developing rather than by developed markets.