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Scenario development for an evolving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business model innovation

Tobias Gnatzy & Roger Moser

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abstract The article discusses the use of Delphi-based scenarios for the development of business model innovations in emerging markets. Motivated by insights from information processing and institutional theory we present a scenario development process combining a PEST (political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological) and a stakeholder approach. We exemplify its use for the evolving health insurance market in rural India and present how our approach can be used to study possible future developments relevant for business model innovations. Key insights are that NGOs might play a crucial role along with the regulatory support of the Government of India and significant advances in mobile payment technologies.
   
type journal paper
   
keywords Scenario development; Strategic analysis; Delphi; Rural India; Health insurance; Expert judgement; Business model innovation
   
language English
kind of paper journal article
date of appearance 5-2012
journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change
publisher Elsevier (Amsterdam)
ISSN 0040-1625
ISSN (online) 1873-5509
DOI 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.001
volume of journal 79
number of issue 4
page(s) 688-699
review double-blind review
   
citation Gnatzy, T., & Moser, R. (2012). Scenario development for an evolving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business model innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(4), 688-699, DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.001.