A Validation Methodology for System Dynamics Models

This paper joins into the effort of the System Dynamics community for higher model quality. The literature in the field has bred a number of contributions concerning tests for the validation of System Dynamics models and the epistemological foundations of validation. To date, however, little has been said about a validation methodology for simulations, especially for System Dynamics models. By validation methodology, we understand the systematic elicitation, description, and reflection of issues related to the subject ‘validation'. The paper's over-all contribution is a blueprint for a validation methodology. We explicitly address the follow-ing three topics: Complexity engineering through validation tests, integrated validation proc-ess, and finally the ‘cessation decision'. The first defines validation tests according to their capability to absorb model complexity; the second designs a validation process which ad-dresses the domains of validation (structure, behaviour and context validation) and the degree of resolution (micro, meso, macro) integratively and iteratively. And third, ‘cession decision' creates a heuristic method for the saturation of a System Dynamics model and conceptually defines when to cease with validation efforts. The paper concludes by pointing out further directions of research about a validation methodology.