Modeling non-maturing savings volumes

In Basel II the regulators stress the importance of finding realistic volumes models for non-maturing accounts (NMAs), given their cash-flow uncer- tainty due to optionality. Focusing on Swiss savings accounts, we identify their seasonal pattern and we derive their sensitivity to market rates and to relevant macroeconomic factors. We derive a realistic volumes model, that allows for cash-flow forecasting, which is essential for liquidity management in banks.