The WTO Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong: What's Next?

Any assessment of the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference depends critically on the benchmark employed. Surely, compared to its predecessor, the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference was a success. Having said that, no major participant in that meeting and no commentator afterwards has suggested that enough progress was made that the end of the Doha Round is in sight. Although World Trade Organization (WTO) members are officially committed to making significant strides before 30 April 2006, there must be considerable doubt as to whether the Doha Round can be completed before Fast Track negotiating authority expires for the U.S. administration in mid-2007. In this paper I identify several factors that call into question whether the Doha Round of trade negotiations can be successfully completed in 2006. Furthermore, given the presidential elections in France and the United States in 2007 and 2008, respectively, I argue that the next plausible window of opportunity for completing the Doha Round will open in 2009. I discuss the implications of this timetable and identify three areas where further work in the next few years could clear some ground for officials before comprehensive negotiations recommence in the closing years of this decade.