Manuel Ammann

This study quantifies performance measure distortions in a cryptocurrency sample truncated by survivorship and delisting bias. Previous research shows that the attrition rate in cryptocurrency markets is high. However, the survivorship and delisting bias in cryptocurrencies lacks empirical research. Using data for 3’904 cryptocurrencies during the 2014-2021 period, we estimate an annualized bias of 0.93% (62.19%) for value-weighted (equal-weighted) portfolios. After controlling for survivorship and delisting bias, we revisit the relationship between average returns, size, past performance, market β, liquidity, and downside risk. Our results confirm the size effect, but the premium is overestimated by 50% in a survival-conditioned sample. In contrast, we find no evidence of a positive relationship between average returns, one-week momentum, market β, and downside risk. Our results suggest that the survivorship and delisting bias are important biases that ought to be omitted.

Many people share investment ideas online. This study investigates whether individual investors trade on investment-related Internet postings. We use unique data from a social trading platform that allow us to observe the shared portfolios of traders, their posted comments, and the replicating transactions of followers. We find robust evidence that followers increasingly replicate shared portfolios of traders after the posting of comments. However, postings do not help followers identify portfolios that deliver superior performance in the future. In a cross-sectional analysis, we show that it is mainly followers who are typically considered to be unsophisticated who trade after comment postings.

We examine the effect of the introduction of Morningstar’s Sustainability Rating in March 2016 on U.S. mutual equity fund flows. Using panel regressions, propensity score matching, and an event study methodology we find strong and robust evidence that retail investors shift money away from low-rated and into high-rated funds. The effect is driven by the publication of the Morningstar Sustainability Rating and not due to a general attractiveness of sustainable funds. Institutional investors do not react to the publication of the Rating. We estimate that an average high-rated retail fund receives between $ 4.1 million and $ 10.1 million higher inflows and an average low-rated retail fund suffers from $ 1.0 million to $ 5.0 million lower net flows than an average-rated fund during the first year after the Rating was published.

This paper investigates the announcement effects of CoCo bonds issued by global banks between January 2009 and June 2014. Using a sample of 34 financial institutions, we examine abnormal stock price reactions and CDS spread changes before and after the announcement dates. We find that the announcement of CoCos correlates with positive abnormal stock returns and negative CDS spread changes in the immediate post-announcement period. We explain these effects with a set of theories including the lowered probability of costly bankruptcy proceedings, a signaling framework based on pecking order theory and the cost advantage of CoCos over equity (tax shield).

This paper investigates the effect of superstar CEOs on their competitors. Exploiting shocks to CEO status due to prestigious media awards, we document a significant positive stock market performance of competitors of superstar CEOs subsequent to the award. The effect is more pronounced for competitors who have not received an Award themselves, who are geographically close to an award winner and who are not entrenched. We observe an increase in risk-taking, operating performance and Innovation activity of superstars' competitors as potential channels for this positive performance. Our results suggest a positive overall welfare impact of corporate superstar systems due to the incentivizing effect on superstars' competitors.

We analyze whether newspaper content can predict aggregate future stock returns. Our study is based on articles published in the Handelsblatt, a leading German Financial newspaper, from July 1989 to March 2011. We summarize newspaper content in a systematic way by constructing word-count indices for a large number of words. Wordcount indices are instantly available and therefore potentially valuable Financial indicators. Our main Finding is that the predictive power of newspaper content has increased over time, particularly since 2000. We Find that a cluster analysis approach increases the predictive power of newspaper articles substantially. To obtain optimal predictive power, we need at least seven clusters. Our analysis shows that newspaper content is a valuable predictor of future DAX returns in and out of sample.