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Florian Weigert
Former Member
Title
Prof. Dr.
Last Name
Weigert
First name
Florian
Phone
+41 71 224 7014
Now showing
1 - 10 of 13
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PublicationOption Return Predictability with Machine Learning and Big Data(Oxford University Press, 2023)
;Bali, Turan G. ;Beckmeyer, HeinerDrawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we nd that allowing for nonlinearities signi cantly increases the out-of-sample performance of option and stock characteristics in predicting future option returns. The nonlinear machine learning models generate statistically and economically sizeable pro ts in the long-short portfolios of equity options even after accounting for transaction costs. Although option-based characteristics are the most important standalone predictors, stock-based measures o er substantial incremental predictive power when considered alongside option-based characteristics. Finally, we provide compelling evidence that option return predictability is driven by informational frictions and option mispricing.Scopus© Citations 16 -
PublicationType: journal article
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PublicationCrash Sensitivity and Cross-Section of Expected Stock ReturnsThis paper examines whether investors receive compensation for holding crash-sensitive stocks. We capture the crash sensitivity of stocks by their lower tail dependence (LTD) with the market based on copulas. We find that stocks with weak LTD serve as a hedge during crises, but, overall, stocks with strong LTD have higher average future returns. This effect cannot be explained by traditional risk factors and is different from the impact of beta, downside beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. Our findings are consistent with results from the empirical option pricing literature and support the notion that investors are crash-averse.Type: journal articleJournal: Journal of Financial and Quantitative AnalysisVolume: 53Issue: 3
Scopus© Citations 78 -
PublicationTail Risk in Hedge Funds : A Unique View from Portfolio HeldingsWe develop a new tail risk measure for hedge funds to examine the impact of tail risk on fund performance and to identify the sources of tail risk. We find that tail risk affects the cross-sectional variation in fund returns, and investments in both, tail-sensitive stocks as well as options, drive tail risk. Moreover, managerial incentives and discretion as well as exposure to funding liquidity shocks are important determinants of tail risk. We find evidence that is consistent with funds being able to time tail risk exposure prior to the recent financial crisis.Type: journal articleJournal: Journal of Financial EconomicsVolume: 125Issue: 3
Scopus© Citations 81 -
PublicationDoes Foreign Information Predict the Returns of Multinational Firms Worldwide?We investigate whether value-relevant foreign information only gradually dilutes into stock prices of multinational firms worldwide. Using an international sample of firms from 22 developed countries, we find that a portfolio strategy based on firms' foreign sales information yields future returns of more than 10% p.a. globally. The return spread due to foreign information is substantial across different geographical regions and cannot be explained by traditional risk factors, firm characteristics, and industry momentum. Our results are in line with limited attention of investors being the main driver of this effect worldwide.
Scopus© Citations 9 -
PublicationCrash Aversion and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns WorldwideThis paper examines whether investors receive compensation for holding stocks with a strong sensitivity to extreme market downturns in a sample covering forty countries. Worldwide, stocks with strong crash sensitivity deliver average returns of more than 7% p.a. higher than stocks with weak crash sensitivity. The effect is robust across geographical subsamples and is not explained by systematic risk factors and alternative firm characteristics. I show that the risk premium is particularly pronounced in countries that display negative market skewness, high income per capita, and rank high on Hofstede's individualism index.Type: journal articleJournal: The Review of Asset Pricing StudiesVolume: 6Issue: 1
Scopus© Citations 21 -
PublicationType: journal articleJournal: Quantitative FinanceVolume: 9/7
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PublicationA Bayesian Stochastic Discount Factor for the Cross-Section of Individual Equity Options( 2024-02-16)We utilize Bayesian model averaging to estimate a stochastic discount factor (SDF) for single-stock options. A Bayesian model averaging SDF outperforms reduced-form benchmark models in-sample and out-of-sample in pricing option return anomalies and portfolios. We document that the SDF is dense in characteristics with the impliedrealized volatility spread, option return momentum, and jump risk emerging as the most likely included factors. Noteworthy, we find that (i) our results remain largely robust after controlling for transaction costs and (ii) characteristics linked to behavioral biases gain in importance for options with high retail trading volume.Type: working paper
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