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Johannes Binswanger
Title
Prof. Dr.
Last Name
Binswanger
First name
Johannes
Email
johannes.binswanger@unisg.ch
Phone
+41 71 224 2514
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1 - 4 of 4
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PublicationBetter Statistics, Better Economic Policies?More and more economic transactions leave a "digital footprint". This trend opens unprecedented opportunities for improving economic statistics and underpins demands to give statistical agencies far-reaching access to private-sector data. We analyze the consequences of better economic statistics in a political-agency framework that includes fundamental uncertainty about the impact of potentially welfare-enhancing reforms. We demonstrate that improvements in economic statistics can inhibit - rather than stimulate - reform attempts. With better statistics, the government is less likely to receive the "benefit of the doubt" if the numbers suggest its past reforms are failing. Reforms therefore come with a higher risk of electoral losses, implying that the government has stronger incentives to preserve the status quo. We identify political environments that are particularly vulnerable to this mechanism and contribute to the debate on private-sector data access.Type: journal articleJournal: European Economic ReviewIssue: 130
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PublicationThe Economics of Beliefs under Fundamental Uncertainty( 2020-12)Oechslin, ManuelIntroducing the concept of “belief entrepreneur”, this paper offers a novel theory on endogenous belief formation under fundamental uncertainty in the sense of \textcite{Knight1921}. We consider a generic setup in which individuals must choose between a tested approach (supplied by a “defender”) and a competing innovative approach (supplied by an “innovator”). While the innovation is promising, its true merits are uncertain (e.g., financial engineering in the 1990s). Facing an ambiguous choice, individuals are susceptible to narratives. The innovator and defender thus act as competing belief entrepreneurs who engage in a narrative contest whose outcome shapes individual prior beliefs. We clarify the conditions under which the contest outcome predominantly reflects information on the merits of the innovation---and when other factors, such as the entrepreneurs’ payoffs, dominate. Our analysis may be helpful to regulators that have to grapple with innovations whose fundamentals they do not know any better than the public.Type: journal articleJournal: Working Paper
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PublicationA Macroeconomy With Intuitive Thinkers( 2024)
;Maren BartelsManuel OechslinType: conference contribution -
PublicationA Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers( 2024)
;Bartels, MarenOechslin, ManuelType: conference poster