Options
Johannes Binswanger
Title
Prof. Dr.
Last Name
Binswanger
First name
Johannes
Email
johannes.binswanger@unisg.ch
Phone
+41 71 224 2514
Now showing
1 - 7 of 7
-
PublicationA Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers( 2024)
;Maren BartelsManuel OechslinA growing body of evidence shows that, when forming expectations, households, firms, and even experts often deviate from rational expectations, adhering to intuitive models about macroeconomic relationships that conflict with actual experience. The “stagflationary” intuitive model – high output comes with low inflation – is a prominent example. Starting with a linear difference model in Blanchard-Kahn (1980) form, we develop a generic macroeconomic framework in which expectations emerge from an interplay of two mental systems. A rigorous thinking system forms expectations corresponding to standard rational expectations. An intuitive system forms expectations based on associative memory, perturbing rational expectations. As a result, households behave as if they were subject to cognitive discounting, and autonomous innovations in intuitive expectations are a source of macroeconomic fluctuations. We illustrate the tractability of the framework by applying it to “stagflationary” expectations and a New Keynesian model.Type: working paper -
PublicationEconomic Forces Shape Beliefs: A Model of Investment under Fundamental Uncertainty( 2018)Oechslin, ManuelType: working paper
-
PublicationSmaller Measurement Errors, Better Economic Policies?( 2018)Oechslin, ManuelType: working paper
-
-
PublicationThe Miracle of Compound Interest: Does our Intuition Fail?( 2012)Carman, KatieType: working paper
-
PublicationType: working paper
-
PublicationType: working paper