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Manfred Gärtner
Former Member
Title
Prof. em. Dr.
Last Name
Gärtner
First name
Manfred
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PublicationThe near-death experience of the Celtic Tiger : A model-driven narrative from the European sovereign debt crisisThis article narrates Ireland's recent odyssey from the pride and envy of Europe to kneeling supplicant through the eyes of an econometric model of the government bond market. The exercise suggests that, in essence, two developments triggered and propelled Ireland's drift towards sovereign default: first, the global financial crisis that drove Ireland into a severe recession with collapsing tax revenues and increasing unemployment; second, a gap between the post-2007 increase in sovereign default risk that can actually be linked to macroeconomic fundamentals and the much bigger increase in perceived risk reflected by high interest rates and communicated by the massive downgrades of Ireland's sovereign debt rating.Type: journal articleJournal: Intereconomics - Review of European Economic PolicyVolume: 48Issue: 6
Scopus© Citations 3 -
PublicationType: journal articleJournal: WirtschaftsdienstVolume: 92Issue: 4
Scopus© Citations 1 -
PublicationPIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating AgenciesThis paper asks whether rating agencies played a passive role or were an active driving force during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. We address this by estimating relationships between sovereign debt ratings and macroeconomic and structural variables. We then use these equations to decompose actual ratings into systematic and arbitrary components that are not explained by previously observed procedures of rating agencies. Finally, we check whether systematic, as well as arbitrary, parts of credit ratings affect credit spreads. We find that both do affect credit spreads, which opens the possibility that arbitrary rating downgrades trigger processes of self-fulfilling prophecies that may drive even relatively healthy countries towards default. (A Working Paper Version is available at [http://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/econwp/201106.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/econwp/201106.html])Type: journal articleJournal: International Advances in Economic ResearchVolume: 17Issue: 3
Scopus© Citations 73 -
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PublicationScapegoat €? : Dokumentarfilm von Alexander Kockerbeck"The Euro crisis is not over! We have managed to calm financial markets, but the problem has moved into the social and political sphere, with increasing unemployment and the risk of growing extremism and euro scepticism", says Paul De Grauwe from the London School of Economics, one of the top economists featured in this European documentary. Thomas Mayer, the former chief economist of Deutsche Bank, is concerned about the "centrally planned monetary economy" led by Central Banks which try to kickstart the economy and to fight deflation by creating unprecedented levels of liquidity that may compromise the entire monetary system. Manfred Gärtner from the University St. Gallen elaborates how the global financial crisis played havoc with European government finances and how problematic sovereign ratings may have added to a "bad equilibrium" in the whole euro area that forced the European Central Bank to do "whatever it takes" to defend the Euro. Alexander Kockerbeck
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