Benedikt Alexander Schuler

Title

Dr.

Last Name

Schuler

First name

Benedikt Alexander

benedikt.schuler@unisg.ch

ORCID

0000-0002-3030-2881

Now showing 1 - 10 of 13

Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Individual Foresight: Concept, Operationalization, and Correlates
(2025-10-01)
Benedikt Alexander Schuler
;
J. Peter Murmann
;
Marie Beisemann
;
Ville Satopää
Judgmental forecasting research on superforecasters has demonstrated that individuals differ in their foresight. However, the concept underlying this work focuses on accuracy and does not fully incorporate the time dimension of foresight. We reconceptualize foresight as the ability to predict future states of the world accurately, where accuracy becomes continuously more important over time. To operationalize foresight in forecasting tournaments, we propose various strictly proper scoring rules and compare them with existing scoring rules using a simulation study and real-world forecasting data consisting of 414,168 scores for 9,694 forecasters on 498 questions from a four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. The results suggest that the linear time-weighted Brier score should be the default operationalization of foresight and that probability training and teaming interventions as proposed by prior research may not improve foresight as we conceptualize it. We contribute to judgmental forecasting research by clarifying the concept, operationalization, and correlates of foresight.
Type:journal article
Journal:International Journal of Forecasting
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.01.003
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/121555
Scopus© Citations 1
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Individual foresight: Concept, operationalization, and correlates
(2025-01)
Benedikt Alexander Schuler
;
Johann Peter Murmann
;
Marie Beisemann
;
Ville Satopää
Judgmental forecasting research on superforecasters has demonstrated that individuals differ in their foresight. However, the concept underlying this work focuses on accuracy and does not fully incorporate the time dimension of foresight. We reconceptualize foresight as the ability to predict future states of the world accurately, where accuracy becomes continuously more important over time. To operationalize foresight in forecasting tournaments, we propose various strictly proper scoring rules and compare them with existing scoring rules using a simulation study and real-world forecasting data consisting of 414,168 scores for 9694 forecasters on 498 questions from a four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. The results suggest that the linear time-weighted Brier score should be the default operationalization of foresight and that probability training and teaming interventions as proposed by prior research may not improve foresight as we conceptualize it. We contribute to judgmental forecasting research by clarifying the concept, operationalization, and correlates of foresight.
Type:journal article
Journal:International Journal of Forecasting
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.01.003
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/121960
Scopus© Citations 1
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
'LinkedIn, LinkedIn on the screen, who is the greatest and smartest ever seen?': A machine learning approach using valid LinkedIn cues to predict narcissism and intelligence
(2024)
Tobias Marc Härtel
;
Benedikt Alexander Schuler
;
Mitja Back
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
Type:journal article
DOI:10.1111/joop.12531
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/120523
Scopus© Citations 16
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Exploring the structure of internal combustion engine and battery electric vehicles: implications for the architecture of the automotive industry
(Oxford Academic, Industrial and Corporate Change Association, 2023-02-01)
Murmann, J. Peter
;
Schuler, Benedikt Alexander
Type:journal article
Journal:Industrial and Corporate Change
Volume:32
Issue:1
DOI:10.1093/icc/dtac049
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/107764
Scopus© Citations 10
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
My colleagues (do not) think the same: Middle managers’ shared and separate realities in strategy implementation
(2023-03-01)
Schuler, Benedikt Alexander
;
Orr, Kevin
;
Hughes, Jeffrey
How does middle managers’ sensemaking of other middle managers’ attitudes to a new strategy affect strategy implementation? We explore this question using a qualitative-abductive approach. Our investigation of the implementation of a top-down strategy in the plant of a multinational German engineering company revealed that middle managers experiencing ambiguity make sense of other middle managers’ attitudes to the strategy in social interactions. Based on their understanding of their colleagues’ attitudes, middle managers construct shared and separate realities about the strategy to be implemented. While shared realities are subjectively experienced commonalities, separate realities are subjectively experienced differences from others’ attitudes to the strategy. In our case, middle managers’ shared realities were associated with inaction on strategy implementation, whereas middle managers’ separate realities were related to initial actions to implement the strategy. Our findings suggest that middle managers’ sensemaking of other middle managers’ attitudes to a new strategy can shape their strategy implementation behavior.
Type:journal article
Journal:Journal of Business Research
Volume:160
Issue:May
URL:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296323001406
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/107674
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
To What Extent Is Foresight Luck?
(Academy of Management Proceedings, 2025-06-17)
Schuler Benedikt Alexander
Type:conference paper
URL:https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/AMPROC.2025.15306abstract
DOI:10.5465/AMPROC.2025.15306abstract
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/123509
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Using Valid Cues to Predict Narcissism and Intelligence From LinkedIn Profiles
(2023-08-01)
Tobias Marc Härtel
;
Benedikt Alexander Schuler
;
Mitja Back
Recruiters routinely use LinkedIn profiles to infer applicants' key personality traits like narcissism and intelligence. However, little is known about LinkedIn profiles' predictive potential to accurately infer personality. According to Brunswik's lens model, accurate personality inferences depend on (a) the presence of valid cues in LinkedIn profiles containing information about users' personality and (b) the consistent utilization of valid cues. We assessed narcissism (self-report) and intelligence (aptitude tests) in a mixed sample of 406 students/professionals along with 64 deductively derived LinkedIn cues coded by 3 trained coders. Applying nested cross-validated elastic nets, we demonstrate that (a) LinkedIn profiles contain valid information about users' narcissism (e.g., uploading a background picture) and intelligence (e.g., listing many accomplishments). Furthermore, (b) mechanical perceivers like machine learning algorithms use these valid cues consistently so that the elastic nets attained substantial prediction accuracy (r = .28/.32 for narcissism/intelligence). This way, we uncover LinkedIn profiles' potential to accurately infer personality: Personality can be inferred accurately if (a) the valid cues contained in LinkedIn profiles are (b) used consistently like a mechanical perceiver does. The results have practical implications for improving recruiters' accuracy and foreshadow potentials of automated LinkedIn based personality assessments for recruitment purposes.
Type:conference paper
Journal:Academy of Management Proceedings
Volume:2023
Issue:1
URL:https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/AMPROC.2023.12425abstract
DOI:10.5465/AMPROC.2023.12425abstract
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/117790
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Exploring the Structure and Modularity of Internal Combustion Engine and Battery Electric Vehicles
(2022-07)
Murmann, Johann Peter
;
Schuler, Benedikt Alexander
Type:conference paper
Journal:Academy of Management Annual Meeting Proceedings
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/108550
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Integrating the Accuracy and Time Dimension of Foresight
(2022-07)
Schuler, Benedikt Alexander
;
Murmann, Johann Peter
;
Beisemann, Marie
Type:conference paper
Journal:Academy of Management Annual Meeting Proceedings
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/108554
Some of the metrics are blocked by your
consent settings
Middle Managers’ Resistance to Strategy Implementation: The Impact of Middle Managers’ Shared Realities
(2021-08-02)
Schuler, Benedikt Alexander
;
Orr, Kevin
Type:conference paper
Journal:Academy of Management Proceedings
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/110137

Benedikt Alexander Schuler

Filters

Settings

Sort By

Results per page