Estimating Preferences from Referendum Votes: the Case of the Performing Arts

This paper studies the electoral connection in the domain of cultural policy spending by analyzing direct democratic referendums on financing of the performing arts. Previous empirical investigations into voter preferences for the arts are based on the (strong) assumption of full voter turnout. I show theoretically and empirically that capturing the turnout decision leads to a different interpretation of the regression coefficients.

By using a 2009 referendum in the Swiss canton St.Gallen to move fiscal responsibility of the local theater from the city to the canton, I show that accounting for the actual turnout decision yields quantitatively different results than previous estimates. In particular, I find that coefficients of variables simultaneously enhancing (or simultaneously deteriorating) turnout and preferences for the arts, e.g., income or the share of the old, are over-estimated. However, my analysis supports the view that socio-economic variables and preferences for the arts are highly correlated.

Analyzing post-ballot surveys of federal votes which took place on the same day as the St.Gallen referendum, reveals that voters were indeed on average richer, better educated and older than the total population. While politicians are typically thought of as spending more for the arts than citizens desire, my analysis shows that voters likely have stronger preferences for the arts than the average citizen.