No Feeling for the Future: Re-examining the Role of Emotions and Cognition in Forecasting
Type
journal article
Date Issued
2026-04-28
Author(s)
Abstract
Our study set out to build on Pham et al.'s (2012) "emotional oracle effect," which claimed that one's trust-in-feelings (TIF) enhances forecasting accuracy by unlocking tacit knowledge. Inspired by this interesting finding, we aimed to explore how one's TIF interacts with crystallized intelligence (CI) and fluid intelligence (FI) to strengthen our understanding of the interplay between emotions and cognition when making predictions. However, a surprising discovery reshaped our investigation: the foundational TIF mechanism itself failed to replicate. Across two robust studies (N = 226; confirmation study N = 432), TIF showed negligible and inconsistent direct effect on prediction accuracy, challenging the theory's core premise. While marginally significant, results suggest TIF might improve accuracy for individuals with high CI; these effects were limited and contingent on specific contexts. Our findings undermine the generalizability of the emotional oracle effect and highlight the fragility of its theoretical foundation. The results present a cautionary tale about building on and extending theories without first thoroughly validating core mechanisms.
Keywords
Forecasting
trust-in-feelings
TIF
cognition
intelligence
emotional oracle effect
dualprocess theory
replication
strategic decision-making
predictions
superforecasters
HSG Classification
not classified
Refereed
No
Subject(s)
Division(s)
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Name
Thomas Li - No Feeling for the Future.pdf
Size
2.46 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
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