Klimawandel und Entscheidungsunterstützung : "Rapid Impact Assessment" Simulationen heben Diskussionen auf eine neue Ebene
Type
presentation
Date Issued
2011-04-07
Author(s)
Abstract (De)
Nachrichten über hohe C02-Emissionen, steigenden Energieverbrauch, eine klaffende Stromversorgungslücke sowie technische und natürliche Katastrophen dominieren die Medien. Warum ergreifen die Entscheidungsträger in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft nicht die Massnahmen, um diese Folgen der Klimaveränderungen zu reduzieren oder zu vermeiden? Das physikalische und technische Wissen um diese Herausforderungen zu stemmen ist vorhanden. Warum wird dieses Wissen dann nicht angewendet? Einschlägige Forschung beweist: Das wirkliche Problem besteht darin, dass die angewendeten intuitiven Heuristiken in dynamisch-komplexen Systemen-wie dem Klimasystem-zu suboptimalen Ergebnissen führen. Schlicht: es fehlen Methoden, um bessere Entscheidungen zu treffen. Eine am Massachusetts Institute of Technology entwickeltes Verfahren verspricht dieses Dilemma zu verringern. Der "Rapid Impact Assessment Simulator" kann durch die sofortige Darstellung der Konsequenzen zur Verbesserung von Entscheidungsregeln ("Policies") beitragen. Im Referat werden Einblicke in die Verwendung dieses Entscheidungsunterstützungssystems an den Klimakonferenzen in Kopenhagen und in Cancún gegeben. Das Referat zeigt, wie die Simulation bei der Formierung von besseren Policies verwendet wird. Diese Einblicke lassen sich auf andere Entscheidungssituationen uebertragen, z.B. in den Alltag von Unternehmen.
Climate Change and Decision Making
News about high C02 emissions, increasing energy consumption, a gap in electricity supply as well as technical and natural disasters dominate the media. Why do the decision makers in business and society not take the measures to reduce the consequences of climate change? The physical and technical knowledge to tackle these challenges is available. Why is this knowledge still not used? Relevant research shows: The real problem is that the intuitive heuristics applied in dynamic complex systems-such as the climate system lead to suboptimal results. Decision makers simply lack methods to make better decisions. A method which has been developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology promises to alleviate this dilemma. The "Rapid Impact Assessment Simulator" can contribute to the improvement of decision rules ("Policies") by the immediate presentation of the consequences. The presentation gives insights about the use of this decision support system at the Climate Summits in Copenhagen and in Cancun. Moreover, it shows how the simulation is used in the formation of better policies. These insights can also be transferred for other decision situations, e.g., into the everyday life of businesses.
Climate Change and Decision Making
News about high C02 emissions, increasing energy consumption, a gap in electricity supply as well as technical and natural disasters dominate the media. Why do the decision makers in business and society not take the measures to reduce the consequences of climate change? The physical and technical knowledge to tackle these challenges is available. Why is this knowledge still not used? Relevant research shows: The real problem is that the intuitive heuristics applied in dynamic complex systems-such as the climate system lead to suboptimal results. Decision makers simply lack methods to make better decisions. A method which has been developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology promises to alleviate this dilemma. The "Rapid Impact Assessment Simulator" can contribute to the improvement of decision rules ("Policies") by the immediate presentation of the consequences. The presentation gives insights about the use of this decision support system at the Climate Summits in Copenhagen and in Cancun. Moreover, it shows how the simulation is used in the formation of better policies. These insights can also be transferred for other decision situations, e.g., into the everyday life of businesses.
Language
German
Keywords
Klimaveraenderung
System Dynamics
Simulation
Entscheidungsunterstuetzung
HSG Classification
contribution to practical use / society
Refereed
No
Event Title
Rotaract Club Bern
Event Location
Bern
Subject(s)
Division(s)
Eprints ID
91862